← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 61% | 56% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.13 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 15% | 19% | 6.45 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 78.00 | 1024.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1464.25 | 1444.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.71 | 9.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |