← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Jun 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 72% | 61% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.31 | value: +14% |
| Sabadell win | 9% | 17% | 10.39 | value: +81% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 342.00 | 708.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.25 | 1407.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -59.26 | -14.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 66.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.27 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |