← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 67% | 61% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.75 | value: +14% |
| Sabadell win | 12% | 15% | 8.50 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1422.00 | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1571.67 | 1443.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.46 | -6.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 66.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |