← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 42% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
| Gimnastic win | 29% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gimnastic | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2814.00 | 1384.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1410.94 | 1563.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.22 | 23.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 25.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.66 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |