Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 08:05 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.60	$5.96	+6%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	60%	1.60
New York Mets win	40%	2.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
New York Mets win		2.29	2.37	+3.7%
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.55	1.57	+1.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.