Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 17, 11:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.79	$7.94	+5%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	53%	1.90
Pittsburgh Pirates win	47%	2.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.86	2.16	+16.3%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.83	1.73	-5.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.