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Ucam Murcia 0–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ucam Murcia win44%2.21
Draw32%3.05
Alcorcon win24%4.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
41'⚽Pablo Pérez · Alcorcon
57'🟨Nono · Ucam Murcia
61'🟨David Navarro · Alcorcon
68'🟨Juan Góngora · Ucam Murcia
72'🟨David Morillas · Ucam Murcia
82'🟨Nono · Ucam Murcia
82'🟥Nono · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUcam MurciaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.38
box share (last 5)0.480.42
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days185.00246.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.00
elo1452.38
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de La Condomina
1405.42
elo momentum (last 5)10.419.34
eye test v10.07-0.85
eye trend v10.200.17
first sub minute (last 10)49.5052.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.70
keeper form v10.780.70
league points48.0044.00
league rank18.0019.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)61.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)41.4043.00
rest days9.007.33
scorer concentration0.360.33
season ppg1.201.10
skill v1-2.14-1.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.602.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.00
state index-0.03-0.43
sterile dominance v1-1.54-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.260.20
threat rate (last 3)0.330.19
threat rate (last 5)0.290.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00