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Alcorcon 1–1 Huesca

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win40%2.44
Draw32%3.01
Huesca win28%3.53

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Álvaro Peña · Alcorcon
24'🟨Rulo Prieto · Huesca
26'⚽Chimy Ávila · Huesca
28'🟨Jon Errasti · Alcorcon
38'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
39'🟨Marco Sangalli · Alcorcon
74'🟨Borja Dominguez · Alcorcon
88'🟨Álvaro Peña · Alcorcon
90'🟨Luso · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots9
4On target2
7Corners4
11Fouls15
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.39
box share (last 5)0.710.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days434.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
161.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.30
elo1435.351552.48
elo momentum (last 5)3.1425.70
eye test v1-0.890.75
eye trend v10.15-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)61.1054.20
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.25
keeper form v10.650.85
league points21.0032.00
league rank14.001.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2051.20
rest days6.257.08
scorer concentration0.290.42
season ppg1.241.88
skill v1-0.430.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.805.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.80
state index-0.390.60
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.220.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60