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Rayo Majadahonda 2–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win37%2.65
Draw34%2.87
Rayo Majadahonda win30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda
38'⚽Benito Ramírez · Rayo Majadahonda
63'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
65'🟨Ernesto Galan · Rayo Majadahonda
71'🟨Sancho Agudo Basilio · Rayo Majadahonda
80'🟨Verza · Rayo Majadahonda
88'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
90'⚽Iza Carcelén · Rayo Majadahonda

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots11
6On target2
1Corners5
17Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo MajadahondaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.23
box share (last 5)0.530.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Cerro del Espino
282.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.30
elo1409.321458.54
elo momentum (last 5)-5.07-15.30
eye test v1-0.07-0.86
eye trend v1-0.010.19
first sub minute (last 10)51.6047.30
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.92
keeper form v10.630.65
league points30.0042.00
league rank18.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4070.60
possession avg (last 5)56.6052.60
rest days6.755.63
scorer concentration0.320.33
season ppg1.071.50
skill v10.82-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.00
state index-0.55-0.57
sterile dominance v10.920.09
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20