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RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win66%1.45
Draw24%4.06
Gimnastic win10%9.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Javi Marquez · Gimnastic
28'🟨Antonio Cotan · Gimnastic
49'⚽Edu Expósito · RC Deportivo La Coruña
62'🟨Ousseynou Thioune · Gimnastic
71'🟨Didier Moreno · RC Deportivo La Coruña
84'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots10
5On target4
6Corners1
12Fouls15
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
box share (last 5)0.470.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days260.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
138.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.011.75
elo1528.581341.98
elo momentum (last 5)22.65-12.98
eye test v1-0.09-0.66
eye trend v1-0.290.38
first sub minute (last 10)64.6053.50
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.48
keeper form v10.720.73
league points46.0020.00
league rank4.0022.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4066.80
possession avg (last 5)53.8039.00
rest days5.927.00
scorer concentration0.240.23
season ppg1.840.80
skill v10.73-1.78
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
state index0.36-0.88
sterile dominance v10.62-1.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60