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Gimnastic 1–3 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win40%2.43
Draw32%3.03
Gimnastic win28%3.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
13'⚽Juan Muñoz · Alcorcon
17'🟨David Rocha · Gimnastic
24'🟨Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon
26'🟨Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
27'⚽Nono · Alcorcon
30'🟨— · Gimnastic
66'🟨— · Gimnastic
80'🟨Marco Sangalli · Alcorcon
84'⚽Manu Del Moral · Gimnastic
86'🟨— · Gimnastic
86'🟥— · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
11Shots9
2On target5
6Corners1
17Fouls14
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.36
box share (last 5)0.670.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days14.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
136.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.53
elo1398.841492.88
elo momentum (last 5)-16.6640.77
eye test v1-1.10-0.69
eye trend v10.360.14
first sub minute (last 10)57.4068.10
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.05
keeper form v10.680.93
league points6.0015.00
league rank22.004.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6071.80
possession avg (last 5)37.6046.40
rest days7.838.81
scorer concentration0.200.43
season ppg0.751.88
skill v1-1.68-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.00
state index-0.750.36
sterile dominance v1-1.03-0.15
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.280.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20