The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Tigres UANL win
49%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.95
Club Queretaro win
24%
4.45
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
51%
1.93
Under
49%
2.00
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
54%
1.80
No
46%
2.10
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
54%
1.84
Under 9.5
46%
2.05
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
52%
2.00
Over 5.5
48%
2.00
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Tigres UANL win
1.75
1.94
+10.9%
Draw
3.60
3.50
-2.8%
Club Queretaro win
4.32
3.65
-15.5%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.