The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Guadalajara Chivas win
63%
1.70
Draw
21%
5.18
FC Juarez win
16%
7.00
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
60%
1.62
Under
40%
2.45
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
2.25
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
50%
1.95
Under 9.5
50%
1.92
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
56%
1.70
Under 4.5
44%
2.20
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
FC Juarez win
4.53
6.25
+38.0%
Draw
4.03
4.50
+11.8%
Guadalajara Chivas win
1.66
1.45
-12.7%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.