Guadalajara Chivas v FC Juarez

← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:07 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Guadalajara Chivas win	56%	1.70
Draw	23%	4.15
FC Juarez win	21%	4.70

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	60%	1.60
Under	40%	2.40

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	58%	1.62
No	42%	2.25

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Estadio Akron