Detroit Tigers 0–5 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 05:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Philadelphia Phillies win in Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.05	$10.51	+4%	+10.51	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	52%	2.19
Detroit Tigers win	48%	2.70

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.86	1.95	+4.8%
Detroit Tigers win		1.90	1.93	+1.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	5
Detroit Tigers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Detroit Tigers	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	17.00	17.00
elo	1499.51	1545.32
elo momentum (last 5)	12.84	-0.92
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.81	0.81
runs against avg (last 10)	3.50	4.50
runs for avg (last 10)	5.60	4.60