← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 05:35 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in Washington Nationals v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.91 | $9.10 | +8% | +9.10 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 54% | 1.91 |
| Washington Nationals win | 46% | 4.51 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.79 | 1.86 | +3.7% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.01 | 1.97 | -2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Washington Nationals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1466.36 | 1550.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.83 | -1.08 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |