← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 05:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.30 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 51% | 10.45 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 49% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 2.05 | 1.94 | -5.6% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.73 | 1.88 | +8.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1509.13 | 1523.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.88 | 7.34 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.30 |