← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Jul 25, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 38% | 51% | 2.55 | value: +31% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 37% | 24% | 2.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.35 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 18' | 🟨 | Diogo Leite · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 48' | 🟨 | Zé Luís · FC Porto |
| 50' | 🟨 | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 66' | ⚽ | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matheus · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 89' |
| 🟨 |
| Samú Costa · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 146.00 | 1150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1704.36 | 1881.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.31 | 22.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 57.00 | 82.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 5.08 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 2.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 23.60 | 26.87 |
| state index | 0.57 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |