← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Fri, Jul 10, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 50% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 23% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 53% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Oleg Reabciuk · Pacos Ferreira |
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 12' | 🟨 | Luiz Carlos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 14' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Pacos Ferreira |
| 28' | 🟨 | Maracás · Pacos Ferreira |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 30' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 38' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pedro Amador · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 78' | ⚽ | Uilton Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bruno Wilson · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 89' | ⚽ | Wenderson Galeno · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 770.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1503.41 | 1715.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.06 | -20.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 34.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 6.19 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 23.81 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |