← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Tue, Jun 30, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 40% | 43% | 2.39 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.06 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 34' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · Rio Ave FC |
| 35' | ⚽ | Nuno Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Aderllan Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tarantini · Rio Ave FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 90' |
| 🟥 |
| Rolando · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 365.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 4.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1625.40 | 1723.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.63 | -23.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 44.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 5.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 24.41 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |