← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 59% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 17% | 16% | 5.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Belenenses +1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 43% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 57% | 1.96 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 3 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 15 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand