← Primeira Liga 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 50% | 57% | 1.95 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.64 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 23% | 19% | 4.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 25 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 566.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.42 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1430.29 | 1754.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.79 | -4.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| league points | 19.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |