← Primeira Liga 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 62% | 66% | 1.57 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.41 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 16% | 13% | 6.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Ricardo Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 12' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 71' | ⚽ | Paulinho · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| coach days |
| 393.00 |
| 393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1491.83 | 1745.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.36 | 12.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |