← Eredivisie 2020-21 · Sun, Sep 13, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: S. Mulder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 49% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| FC Emmen −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 45% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 55% | 2.09 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Robbert De Vos · FC Emmen |
| 20' | 🟨 | Guus Hupperts · VVV Venlo |
| 38' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 49' | ⚽ | Marko Kolar · FC Emmen |
| 50' | ⚽ | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 64' | 🟨 | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Christian Kum · VVV Venlo |
| 72' | ⚽ | Giorgos Giakoumakis · VVV Venlo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Nikolai Laursen · FC Emmen |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | De Oude Meerdijk |
| 🟨 |
| Marko Kolar · FC Emmen |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Caner Cavlan · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jafar Arias · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1565.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1484.66 | 1431.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.22 | 15.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -1.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |