← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 50% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.69 | value: +5% |
| FC Emmen win | 24% | 20% | 4.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
| 35' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · Willem II Tilburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Luciano Slagveer · FC Emmen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Hilal Ben Moussa · FC Emmen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Glenn Bijl · FC Emmen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| coach days |
| 284.00 |
| 1075.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1516.37 | 1450.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.97 | 22.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 44.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |