← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 41% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 32% | 34% | 3.02 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Hilal Ben Moussa · FC Emmen |
| 12' | ⚽ | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sven Nieuwpoort · Graafschap |
| 83' | 🟨 | Youssef El Jebli · Graafschap |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 842.00 | 1056.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1411.61 | 1463.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.63 | 20.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 26.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.53 | 25.77 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |