← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 40% | 46% | 2.44 | value: +11% |
| Graafschap win | 33% | 30% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Furdjel Narsingh · Graafschap |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ralf Seuntjens · VVV Venlo |
| 55' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · VVV Venlo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabian Serrarens · Graafschap |
| 85' | ⚽ | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days |
| 1754.00 |
| 839.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1426.65 | 1418.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.79 | 16.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.40 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |