← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 45% | 52% | 2.14 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.42 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 26% | 23% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Michael De Leeuw · FC Emmen |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jonathan Opoku · VVV Venlo |
| 25' | ⚽ | Alexander Bannink · FC Emmen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jafar Arias · FC Emmen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jonathan Opoku · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michael Chacon · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Seacon Stadion De Koel |
| coach days | 1670.00 | 969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1467.31 | 1474.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.62 | -2.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |