← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 39% | 39% | 2.48 | fair |
| FC Emmen win | 33% | 29% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.43 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · VVV Venlo |
| 19' | 🟥 | Roel Janssen · VVV Venlo |
| 26' | 🟨 | Moreno Rutten · VVV Venlo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Danny Post · VVV Venlo |
| 54' | 🟨 | Stef Gronsveld · FC Emmen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Stef Gronsveld · FC Emmen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Anco Jansen · FC Emmen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hilal Ben Moussa · FC Emmen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Emmen | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | JenS Vesting |
| coach days | 877.00 | 1578.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1480.59 | 1439.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.22 | 33.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.12 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.38 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.40 |