β Eredivisie 2018-19 Β· Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graafschap win | 37% | 34% | 2.59 | fair |
| VVV Venlo win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | β½ | Tino-Sven SuΕ‘iΔ Β· VVV Venlo |
| 26' | π¨ | Frank Olijve Β· Graafschap |
| 30' | β½ | Danny Post Β· VVV Venlo |
| 37' | π¨ | Sven Nieuwpoort Β· Graafschap |
| 45' | π¨ | Ralf Seuntjens Β· VVV Venlo |
| 83' | π¨ | Tino-Sven SuΕ‘iΔ Β· VVV Venlo |
| 89' | β½ | Delano Burgzorg Β· Graafschap |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Graafschap | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | β | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | De Vijverberg |
| coach days | 622.00 | 1537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | β | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | β | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | β | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | β | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | β | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | β | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | β | 0.40 |
| elo | 1398.15 | 1405.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.24 | 16.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | β | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.50 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | β | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | β | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.75 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | β | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -1.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | β | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |