← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo win | 40% | 33% | 2.25 | fair |
| Graafschap win | 32% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VVV Venlo | Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 932.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1399.83 | 1407.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.12 | 4.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.91 |
| state index | -1.46 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |