← Ligue 1 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 44% | 33% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +26% |
| Reims win | 25% | 28% | 3.87 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Reims +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Xavier Chavalerin · Reims |
| 39' | 🟨 | Benjamin Bourigeaud · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Reims |
| 67' | 🟨 | Martin Terrier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Wout Faes · Reims |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Serhou Guirassy · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ghislain Konan · Reims |
| 83' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Predrag Rajković · Reims |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| 85' | 🟥 | Moreto Cassama · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1434.00 | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1690.81 | 1703.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.46 | -2.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| league points | 38.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 25.95 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |