← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 80% | 87% | 1.22 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 7.10 | fair |
| Nantes win | 6% | 4% | 17.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Adrien Thomasson · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesé Rodríguez · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 171.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1849.61 | 1476.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.90 | 6.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 46.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.35 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.81 | — |
| state index | 1.65 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.52 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |