← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71% | 77% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 9% | 6% | 10.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +3% |
| Under | 48% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Nico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund |
| 38' | 🟨 | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
| 54' | ⚽ | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 62' | ⚽ | James Sands · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jobe Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ricky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 350.00 | 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1856.05 | 1532.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.09 | 9.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 36.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -1.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.61 | — |
| state index | 1.24 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 0.55 |