← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 58% | 54% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.16 | value: +4% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 18% | 21% | 5.50 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.75 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 33' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 40' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rode · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 61' | ⚽ | Djibril Sow · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 76' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 84' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 84' | 🟨 | Makoto Hasebe · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 451.00 | 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1881.66 | 1808.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.66 | -0.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.74 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 39.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.09 |
| state index | 1.33 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.07 |