← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 67% | 75% | 1.49 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 5.50 | fair |
| Hertha win | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Hertha −1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 67% | 1.53 | value: +3% |
| Under | 36% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 31' | ⚽ | Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund |
| 46' | ⚽ | Lucas Tousart · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tolga Ciğerci · Hertha |
| 75' | 🟨 | Agustín Rogel · Hertha |
| 76' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
| coach days | 233.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1876.66 | 1601.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.97 | -18.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| league points | 40.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 24.58 |
| state index | 1.73 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.13 |