← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 15, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 66% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 5.00 | value: +23% |
| Hertha win | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| RB Leipzig −1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 46% | 2.47 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 30' | ⚽ | Abdou Diallo · RB Leipzig |
| 32' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Hertha |
| 38' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Dodi Lukebakio · Hertha |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | ⚽ | Stevan Jovetić · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Agustín Rogel · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 318.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1831.44 | 1619.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.43 | 31.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 26.60 |
| state index | 0.87 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |