← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 72% | 77% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 10% | 7% | 9.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 46% | 2.49 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand