← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 53% | 55% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 23% | 20% | 4.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| RB Leipzig +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 3' | 🟨 | Benito Raman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 5' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 43' | 🟨 | Amine Harit · FC Schalke 04 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 61' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 67' | ⚽ | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · RB Leipzig |
| 80' | ⚽ | Angeliño · RB Leipzig |
| 89' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 236.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1731.37 | 1874.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.23 | -10.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| league points | 36.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.68 | 24.26 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |