← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 67% | 78% | 1.44 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 5.01 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 13% | 6% | 7.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RB Leipzig −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| 1. FC Köln −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 70% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand