← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 76% | 80% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 5.98 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 8% | 5% | 11.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · SC Freiburg |
| 44' | 🟨 | Amir Abrashi · SC Freiburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 54' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · SC Freiburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 84' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 300.00 |
| 2704.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1746.40 | 1509.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.85 | -21.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.58 |
| league points | 61.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.75 | — |
| state index | 1.45 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |