← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 38% | 31% | 2.56 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 35% | 28% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 41% | 3.62 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Kai Havertz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 16' | 🟨 | Charles Aránguiz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 17' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 23' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 83' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | BayArena |
| coach days |
| 95.00 |
| 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1663.82 | 1714.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.02 | 13.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.85 |
| league points | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.01 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.79 | 23.82 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |