← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 53% | 43% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 34% | 4.01 | value: +36% |
| Hertha win | 22% | 23% | 4.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Dayot Upamecano · RB Leipzig |
| 4' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 8' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · RB Leipzig |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jean-Kévin Augustin · RB Leipzig |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ademola Lookman · RB Leipzig |
| 46' | 🟨 | Fabian Lustenberger · Hertha |
| 49' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jean-Kévin Augustin · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 82' | ⚽ | Bruma · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 1196.00 |
| 680.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1560.03 | 1618.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.87 | -45.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| league points | 43.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.02 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |