← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 55% | 58% | 1.78 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.03 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 21% | 17% | 4.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · RB Leipzig |
| 33' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 47' | ⚽ | Daniel Didavi · Wolfsburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jean-Kévin Augustin · RB Leipzig |
| 66' | 🟨 | Daniel Didavi · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 673.00 |
| 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1609.30 | 1499.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -77.90 | -12.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| league points | 47.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 23.35 | — |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |