← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 45% | 40% | 2.19 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 28% | 33% | 3.42 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 610.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1759.34 | 1849.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.07 | 13.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 38.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.68 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |