← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 45% | 33% | 2.16 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.72 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days | 444.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1587.03 | 1727.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.40 | 9.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 22.99 | 24.56 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |