← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 58% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.85 | value: +8% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 17% | 16% | 5.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 7' | 🟨 | Dominic Maroh · 1. FC Köln |
| 34' | ⚽ (og) | Dominic Maroh · RB Leipzig |
| 39' | 🟨 | Konstantin Rausch · 1. FC Köln |
| 53' | ⚽ | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 62' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · RB Leipzig |
| 65' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 239.00 | 1365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1734.67 | 1719.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.01 | 9.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 45.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.74 | 26.95 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |