← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 26, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Guzman
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 36% | 35% | 2.60 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 35% | 30% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 50% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Campo de Futbol de Vallecas |
| 🟨 |
| Andrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 84' | ⚽ | Florian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alemão · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alemão · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 299.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1656.17 | 1681.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.99 | -6.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.73 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.76 |