← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 47% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 26% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 47% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 45% | 2.01 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 55% | 2.10 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Abanca Balaídos |