← Primera Division 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrián Cordero
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 42% | 36% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 28% | 32% | 3.61 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Edu Expósito · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 12' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Girona |
| 22' | 🟨 | Pol Lozano · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jofre Carreras · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Miguel Gutiérrez · Girona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Girona |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 374.00 | 1348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1629.52 | 1737.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.99 | -27.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.42 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| league points | 27.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 16.29 | 9.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.84 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 27.46 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.81 |