← Primera Division 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 35% | 39% | 2.77 | value: +7% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 35% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Sevilla FC |
| 20' | 🟨 | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · Real Betis Balompié |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Natan · Real Betis Balompié |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tanguy Nianzou · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ørjan Nyland · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Chimy Ávila · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tanguy Nianzou · Sevilla FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 90' |
| 🟥 |
| Tanguy Nianzou · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 127.00 | 1527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1685.28 | 1735.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.50 | -18.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 2.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.79 |